Senate and House control hinge on handful of competitive races
The short version
- Decision Desk HQ rates 13 House contests as toss-ups.
- Democrats need to flip four Republican-held Senate seats to regain the majority.
- Six Senate races are considered toss-ups, all currently held by Republicans.
- Redrawn congressional districts in Florida are designed to favor Republicans but remain competitive.
- Some Senate targets are in states President Trump won by double digits in 2024.
What we don’t know yet
- Which specific candidates will win the contested Senate seats?
- How many House seats will change hands in the final outcome?
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Coverage compared
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How coverage grew
First reported by ABC News Control of Congress is up for grabs. What’s the math for Democrats and Republicans?
Fox News Senate control is a coin flip — and Democrats’ path runs through Trump Country
The New York Times The Red States That Could Decide the Senate
Washington Examiner The four spoiler candidates who could determine Senate control in the 2026 midterm elections
All 10 articles
- BBC News, centreA Paralympian vs a former TV news anchor - and other US Senate races to watch
- Fox News, right-leaningEverything to know about House and Senate control, ballot measures and 2026 Election Day poll closing
- The Hill, centreThe 10 races that will decide House control
- The Hill, centreThe 6 races that could decide Senate control
- Washington Examiner, right-leaningDemocrats are likely to come up short in Florida. They’re still giving Republicans a scare
- Daily Mail, right-leaningDemocrats need just four seats to grab the Senate on Tuesday. These are the 10 brawls that decide it.
- Washington Examiner, right-leaningThe four spoiler candidates who could determine Senate control in the 2026 midterm elections
- The New York Times, left-leaningThe Red States That Could Decide the Senate
- Fox News, right-leaningSenate control is a coin flip — and Democrats’ path runs through Trump Country
- ABC News, left-leaningControl of Congress is up for grabs. What’s the math for Democrats and Republicans?